Rising temperatures due to climate change could mean wild arabica coffee is extinct in 70 years, posing a risk to the genetic sustainability of one of the world's basic commodities, scientists said. Although
commercial coffee growers would still be able to cultivate crops in plantations
designed with the right conditions, experts say the loss of wild arabica, which
has greater genetic diversity, would make it harder for plantations to survive
long-term and beat threats like pests and disease.
A study by researchers at Britain's Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew in
collaboration with scientists in Ethiopia found
that 38 to 99.7 percent of the areas suitable for wild arabica will disappear
by 2080 if predictions of rising temperatures pan out. Because coffee is a
highly climate-dependent crop, the increase of a few degrees of average
temperature in growing regions can put at risk the future of Arabica coffee and
the livelihood of millions of people who grow and produce it. "The extinction of
arabica coffee is a startling and worrying prospect," said Aaron Davis, head
of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, who led the study. In a telephone interview, he said the findings made it even more
important for organisations such as the World Coffee Research collaboration to
continue work to improve the genetic strength of cultivated arabica by
preserving wild types.
Researchers used computer modeling to analyse the influence of rising
temperatures on the geographical distribution of wild arabica coffee. The
results, published in a the Public Library of Science journal PLOS ONE, showed
a "profoundly negative influence" on the number and extent of wild
arabica populations, the researchers said. The researchers conducted two types
of analysis. In the locality analysis, they found that the best outcome was for
a 65 percent fall in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable
localities and the worst was for a 99.7 percent drop by 2080.
In the area analysis, the best outcome was a 38 percent reduction in
suitable growing regions and the worst case was a 90 percent reduction by 2080.
Davis said the predictions were conservative, since the modelling did not
factor in large-scale deforestation now taking place in Ethiopia and South
Sudan, another Arabica coffee region. "The models assume intact natural
vegetation, whereas the highland forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan are highly
fragmented due to deforestation," the researchers wrote. "Other
factors, such as pests and diseases, changes in flowering times, and perhaps a
reduction in the number of birds (which disperse the coffee seeds), are not
included, and these are likely to have a compounding negative influence."
Cultivated arabica coffee accounts for slightly more than 60 percent of
global coffee production, with about 4.86 million tonnes produced this year and
valued at around $16 billion in wholesale trade. Exports of coffee also are
crucial to the economies of countries including Brazil, Sudan and Ethiopia,
where arabica coffee is thought to have originated.
Source: Times of India
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